The Paton Welding Journal, 2026, №09

2026 №09 (07)

DOI of Article 10.37434/tpwj2026.09.08

2026 №09 (01)

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The Paton Welding Journal, 2026, #9, 74-82 pages

Influence of statistical analysis methods on prediction of the microstructure and properties of high-strength low-alloy steels

V.A. Kostin

E.O. Paton Electric Welding Institute of the NASU. 11 Kazymyr Malevych Str., 03150, Kyiv, Ukraine. E-mail: valerykostinepwi@gmail.com

Abstract
The paper provides complex statistical analysis of the properties of high-strength low-alloy steels (HSLA, HSA, SSHA, ASSHA) with application of an extensive database. The modern methods of data analysis, including correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), as well as machine learning (Random Forest, XGBoost) and SHAP values and interpreted metrics were used to study the interrelation between the chemical composition, microstructure and mechanical properties of steels. Principal elements and parameters, having the greatest impact on strength, ductility and thermal resistance were determined for each group of steels. Optimal ranges of C, Nb, V and Ni content, as well as heat treatment modes, including austenitization temperature and cooling rate were substantiated. The results demonstrate that complex control of the composition and heat treatment allows developing steels with an excellent balance of service characteristics. Practical recommendations section presents specific guidelines for metallurgical design of new steels, including the use of machine learning models for acceleration of development and optimization of steels. The work also discusses the research gaps, such as the need to standardize the data, study complex interaction of alloying elements, phase transformation dynamics, and prospects for implementing AI methods.
Keywords: high-strength low-alloy steels, statistical, correlation, cluster analysis, machine learning, microstructure, prediction of properties

Received: 02.10.2025
Received in revised form: 27.01.2026
Accepted: 16.09.2026

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Suggested Citation

V.A. Kostin (2026) Influence of statistical analysis methods on prediction of the microstructure and properties of high-strength low-alloy steels. The Paton Welding J., 09, 74-82. https://doi.org/10.37434/tpwj2026.09.08

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